The PPP way to growth

While big-ticket reforms are held up, let’s address infra concerns

Again a goodread from The Hindu's Businessline, an excellent newspaper for policy making articles.

That the Narendra Modi government ran into a wall of Opposition in Parliament in trying to push reform legislation in coal and insurance is unfortunate Even so, ordinances cannot institutionalise a new model of governance; at best, they may only signal to a restive industry that the Centre means business and buy some time to cobble up a consensus in Parliament. But even if such a consensus on amending laws on land acquisition, labour, mining and the financial sector takes time in coming, there are enough areas where supply side constraints can be eased without breaking into so much as a sweat. One of these is allowing for renegotiation in new PPP projects, if not in existing ones. The 3P India initiative, announced by Finance Minister Arun Jaitley in the Budget, marks a salutary attempt to address “weaknesses of the PPP framework, the rigidities in contractual arrangements, the need to develop more nuanced models of contracting, and speedy dispute redressal”. This process needs to be cranked up for the over 900 PPP infrastructure projects in the fray, involving a credit exposure of nearly ₹9 trillion.

In this context, the recent RBI circular extending the so-called 5:25 scheme to existing infrastructure projects is to be welcomed. These projects can now get finance over 25 years, with the banks being allowed to refinance or sell out their loans every five years. This is a way out of the stressed assets logjam that has frozen up both the supply and demand for credit. The growth of bank credit to infrastructure sectors fell from 45 per cent in 2011-12 to 18 per cent in 2013-14 and has been trending downward since. Banks cannot lend beyond a tenure of 10 to 12 years due to their asset profile, and this impacts both the viability of the loan and the costing/pricing of projects such as roads and metros, among others. The India Infrastructure Finance Company, set up in 2006 to overcome the asset-liability mismatch, does not seem to have made enough headway.

However, as the Finance Minister observed, finance is only one of the problems weighing down PPPs. Contracts need to be renegotiated when macroeconomic shocks overturn earlier assumptions. To ward off allegations of crony capitalism or litigation from bidders who lose out in the first stage, it is important to create a credible institutional mechanism. This is precisely what 3P India should set out to do, besides thinking up innovative financial instruments and concession agreements. It could ease up exit conditions, so that promoters can use the freed up capital for other projects. Pricing should combine public purpose considerations with those of risk and efficiency. Pushing big ticket reforms is no cakewalk in a raucous polity such as ours. Yet, a robust PPP framework can make a difference in cranking up investment and growth.

All you wanted to know about Shale Oil

In an unexpected stroke of good luck for you, me and the country, the price of crude oil has fallen from $115 a barrel in June all the way down to $84. This has meant cheaper petrol and diesel, and a lower subsidy bill for the Government. One big factor responsible for this price fall is the unexpected increase in oil produced from shale in the US.

What is it?

Shale oil is essentially crude oil but an unconventional one at that. While the conventional fuel is usually found in porous rocks such as sandstone, shale oil is trapped in shale rock formations that are not easily permeable and hence is tougher to tap. So though its existence has been known for long, shale oil wasn’t being extracted in large quantities.

But technological advancements — horizontal drilling and fracturing (fracking) — introduced and honed since the early part of the century have enabled shale oil exploration and production on an industrial scale.

Most of the action in shale oil so far has been in the US where explorers have struck copious quantities of the black gold. It has not been smooth sailing though. Environmentalists and local communities have been up in arms against the pollution caused to land and water bodies by the chemicals used in the fracking process.

Nevertheless, shale oil produced in the country has grown by leaps and bounds over the years. So the dependence of the US — the largest oil consumer in the world — on imported crude oil has fallen sharply. And this has added to the weakness of global crude oil price in recent months.

Conventional crude oil producers such as Saudi Arabia have been cutting prices to maintain their market share and to drive some of the high cost shale oil producers out of action.

But whether this will have the desired effect remains to be seen — technological improvements are expected to push down the cost of shale oil production.

Also, while Saudi Arabia might have the financial muscle to sustain low prices for quite some time, other conventional producers such as Venezuela and Nigeria may likely find it difficult to hold out.

Why is it important?

Shale oil has the potential to be a massive game-changer in global energy supply and pricing — with enormous geopolitical implications. It’s not just the US; countries such as Russia, China and Argentina are also believed to have vast stores of shale oil. India too is taking baby steps to find and explore its shale assets potential.

Progress in other nations has been quite slow so far. But there’s no saying when the inflection point will be reached. If production continues to expand, countries such as the US could start exporting oil in a few years.

Why should I care?

For starters, more shale oil means lower petrol and diesel prices. So you spend less on travel.

Cheaper crude oil also reduces India’s current account deficit and subsidy bill and will also give a boost to the country’s GDP — that means more and better-paying jobs, and more profitable businesses. But shale oil production in India in the future could also mean more environmental challenges. So the right trade-off needs to be made.

Source: BusinessLine

Labor Reforms....

The Prime Minister’s assault on red tape can make a real difference

The much awaited labour reforms necessary for mass manufacturing in India were initiated by Prime Minister Modi on October 15. Any efforts to rationalise labour rules, around 250 of them at the Central and State levels, is a welcome step for industry.

The two key areas of reform are ‘unified labour and industrial portal’ and ‘labour inspection scheme’. Introduction of the labour identification number (LIN) and putting inspection on a unified portal will help bring transparency in the use of labour rules.

The Prime Minister’s efforts to raise the minimum wage ceiling from ₹6,500 to ₹15,000 and to ensure EPF and the pension scheme for vulnerable groups are also laudable.

Overall it’s the first big step that’s been taken at the Central level to reform one of the most complicated issues in the post-reforms era. However, much more needs to be done to put together a system that is not biased against either employers or employees.

Further, the system should create an environment for productive employment with reasonable safety nets.

It’s been well established that China’s flexible and business friendly labour laws have ensured continued investments in Chinese manufacturing, unlike in India where restrictive labour laws have been a cause of concern for investors. Though the Indian labour force has been much more disciplined and cooperative in the post-reforms period leading to a decrease in the number of strikes, lockouts, mandays lost and so on, the large number of labour rules and the process of enforcement by inspectors scares investors, at least on paper.

Restrictive approach

India’s labour laws are restrictive in nature and hurt investments in the manufacturing sector. The Industrial Disputes Act (1947) has rigid provisions such as compulsory and prior government approval in the case of layoffs, retrenchment and closure of industrial establishments employing more than 100 workers. This clause applies even when there is a good reason to shut shop, or worker productivity is seriously low.

The Contract Labour (Regulation and Abolition) Act (1970) states that if the job content or nature of work of employees needs to be changed, 21 days’ notice must be given. The changes also require the consent of the employees, and this can be tricky.

While the right of workers to associate is important, the Trade Union Act (1926) provides for the creation of trade unions where even outsiders can be office-bearers. This hurts investor faith and restricts economic growth.

Rigid labour laws discourage firms from trying to introduce new technology, requiring some workers to be retrenched. This deters FDI because of the fear that it would not be possible to dismiss unproductive workers or to downsize during a downturn. Hence getting FDI into export-oriented labour-intensive sectors in India has not been fully achieved.

In contrast, China has succeeded in attracting FDI to export-oriented labour-intensive manufacturing, in part because of flexible labour laws such as the contract labour system implemented in 1995. Whereas in India, employers have taken to hiring workers on contract outside the institutional and legislative ambit, resulting in informalisation of the labour market. This hampers worker well-being.

Reforms initiatives

To undo the malady in India’s labour market, some changes have recently been initiated in the three acts that largely govern India’s labour market: the Factories Act (1948), the Labour Laws Act (1988) and the Apprenticeship Act (1961). Amendments to some restrictive provisions of all these acts have been cleared by the Cabinet and are set to be tabled in Parliament. Key changes proposed include dropping the punitive clause that calls for the imprisonment of company directors who fail to implement the Apprenticeship Act of 1961.

The Government is also going to do away with a proposed amendment to the Act that would mandate employers to absorb at least half of its apprentices in regular jobs.

In order to provide flexibility to managers and employers, the amendment to the Factories Act includes doubling the provision of overtime from 50 hours a quarter to 100 hours in some cases and from 75 hours to 125 hours in others involving work of public interest. This is seen by some as being anti-labour as it imposes greater working hours without ensuring their security and welfare.

However, the penalty for violating the Act has been increased so as to deter exploitation. Increasing the working hours might also have to do with low worker productivity in India.

However, even as productivity issues should be addressed in part by bringing in quality FDI, it is important that maximum-hour protection is strictly enforced so as to prevent worker exploitation.

The norms for the employment of women in certain industry segments have been relaxed. The number of days that an employee needs to work to be eligible for benefits like leave with pay has been reduced to 90 from 240.

The amendments to Labour Laws Act, 1988 meanwhile, will allow companies to hire more people without having to fulfil weighty labour law requirements as it is proposed that companies with 10-40 employees will be exempt from having to furnish and file returns on various aspects. This will help avoid procedural delays, a feature of doing business in India.

Rajasthan shows the way

With the finance minister encouraging States to bring in appropriate labour reforms, Rajasthan has gone the Chinese way. Henceforth, it will be easier for firms there to adopt hire and fire policies. The Rajasthan government’s labour reforms are manifold. For one, industrial establishments employing up to 300 workers are now allowed to retrench employees without seeking the prior permission of the Government.

In addition, the threshold of the number of employees required for the purpose of applicability of the Factories Act has been increased from 10 to 20 (in electricity-powered factories) and from 20 to 40 (in factories without power). This is expected to reduce bureaucratic delays.

Finally, membership of 30 per cent of the total workforce needs to be recorded for a union to obtain recognition, up from 15 per cent, a move that will halt productivity losses out of politically motivated petty strikes.

The reality is that manufacturing has to grow to absorb millions of semi-skilled young Indians, a difficult task without rationalising labour reforms. Overall, it seems Modi is on the right track.

Source: BusinessLine

Structural imbalance in Indian economy

         As per a newspaper report, India is poised to become a $2 trillion economy by FY15 even if it grows at 5%. The growth rate for Q1 FY15 has been 5.7% and the RBI estimated growth rate for FY15 is 5.5%. So we can be sure of crossing this milestone by March 2015. Psychologically, it is an important milestone to cross. However, if your dive into the numbers then you will find that the per capita income has not increased drastically. If you look at the chart below, several imbalances can be found in our economy. 

Although 50% of our population depends on agriculture, the share of agriculture is a meagre 18%. Services contribute a lot to our GDP, a whopping 50%. When Modi was the CM of Gujarat, he had trifurcated the economic structure on 3 pillars namely, Agriculture(33%), Services(33%) and Manufacturing(33%). The same model needs to be replicated at national level. Given the kind of human capital we have, liberalising the labour reforms, land acquisition and environment laws together can help the government raise the GDP by 2% in 3 years. All of these coupled with financial sector reforms, GST, augmented infrastructure capacity in terms in roads,freight corridors and ports can further help the government raise the GDP by 2%. The point I am trying to make is, focusing on the sectors which involve heavy manufacturing activities can help the government spread the base of the economy. For eg. there are about 15 cities where Metro rail projects are in several phases of execution. Currently, the tracts, via ducts, pre cast cement blocks, signalling system equipments and finally the trains, all are imported. Why can't we set a standard for all the trains, signalling system, pre cast ducts and indigenously produce them in our country? This will help in saving our import bill and simultaneously increase the manufacturing activity. Every job created in manufacturing sector creates 5 more direct and indirect jobs.Service sector is such a sector which can be sandwiched between Agriculture and Manufacturing, for both these sectors required IT support, marketing,advertisement and other allied activities. In next 3 years, the government needs to focus on labour liberalization and execution of those liberalized reforms coupled with financial sector reforms. This process will be excruciatingly painful and give a lot of labour pains, but in the end it will deliver a beautiful baby... 

Image Source: Livemint

LIC Jeevan Rekha T.No.52

         One of the common topics related to the investment in 80C is LIC policies. There are various investment options available like PPF, NSC bonds, EPS and other govt securities. But insurance is an instrument which provides you and your family a contingency cover. My dad enrolled my for a LIC policy namely LIC Jeevan Rekha T No 52 in the year 2006. Since last 4 years I am paying the premiums and I used to crib upon paying a lot of premium on insurance policies. Recently I tried to understand what my policy is all about and is it really worth it investing so much in it.

In case of Jeevan Rekha, the minimum age of entry for this policy is 13 years completed while the maximum age is 65 years. The single premium paying terms available are 5,10,15,20 and 25 years and premiums payable for life.

The minimum sum assured is Rs 2 lakh and thereafter in multiples of Rs 10,000.The survival benefits equivalent to 10% of the basic sum assured are paid out to the life assured on survival after every five years from the date of commencement of the policy. For a 20-year term, 20%, 20%, 20% and 40% of the sum assured are paid out in the fifth , 10th, 15th and 20th year respectively. The policy matures on the death of the policy holder whereby the sum assured along with vested bonuses are payable, irrespective of survival benefits paid already. Also, if the policyholder survives till 85 years of age(which I would certainly looking at the lifeline on my palm), he would receive 100% of the assured sum - with bonus. Hence, if the policyholder lives till 85 years of age, he effectively receives 200% of the assured sum including the money paid back during the premium term.

Now my sum assured is Rs 10,00,000. The policy term is 15 years. I pay a premium of 46,700 every year. Every 5 years I would get Rs 1,00,000.The LIC India website public disclosure says that a bonus of 44Rs/1000/year has been declared on an average for this policy. Which means the vested bonus for last 8 years should be around Rs 3,52,000. Assuming the same blended average for next 7 years, the bonus amount on maturity should be Rs 6,60,000. So at the time of maturity I should be getting Rs 10,00,000 (Sum Assured) + Rs 6,60,000 + loyalty bonus if it is declared at that time = Rs 16,60,000(+ 3,00,000 which I had already received every 5th consecutive year). And thereafter maturity I will receive 1,00,000 every 5 years till the age of 85. So I am waiting for 2021, to get a big fat cheque which I would have never received otherwise.. :P

So the highlight of these policies is that they offer you both regular returns all through the term along with a lifelong cover. Thus, they not only provide for your financial needs at every stage of your life, but also ensure the security of the family in case of death.

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P.S: This policy is no longer available for sale, so do not take it as an endorsement or advertisement initiative. This is just an analysis I did for myself and thought of publishing it on my blog.

Interlinking rivers in India

The articles which I am sharing are part of my Political and Economic thinking. I came across an article in The Hindu Business-line, the news paper which I follow exclusively for policy making literature.

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“Atalji's dream of linking rivers is our dream as well. This can strengthen the efforts of our hardworking farmers,” tweeted Narendra Modi soon after an election campaign speech in Bihar in April.

The river linking project, which the National Water Development Agency (NWDA) calls inter-basin transfer of water, is designed to ease water shortages in western and southern India, while mitigating the impact of recurrent floods in the eastern parts of the Ganga basin.

“One of the most effective ways to increase the irrigation potential to improve foodgrain production, mitigate floods and droughts and reduce regional imbalances in the availability of water is the Inter Basin Water Transfer from surplus rivers to deficit areas. The Brahmaputra and the Ganga, particularly their northern tributaries; the Mahanadi, the Godavari, and the west-flowing rivers originating from the Western Ghats are found to be surplus in water resources,” NWDA says on its Website.

At its completion, the country will have 30 river links, 3,000 storage structures, a canal network stretching almost 15,000 km and can generate 34 GW of hydroelectric power, create some 87 million acres of irrigated land, and transfer 174 trillion litres of water a year. The initial cost of the project is estimated to be at ₹5.6 lakh crore, while around 580,000 people face the threat of displacement.

The plan

Under the National Perspective Plan (NPP) prepared by the Ministry of Water Resources, the NWDA has identified 14 links under the Himalayan Component and 16 links under the Peninsular Rivers Component. Out of these, feasibility reports for 14 links under the Peninsular Component and two links under the Himalayan Component have been prepared.

According to the NPP, the Himalayan Rivers Development Project envisages construction of storage reservoirs on the main Ganga and the Brahmaputra and their principal tributaries in India and Nepal, along with an inter-linking canal system to transfer surplus flow of the eastern tributaries of the Ganga to the West. It will also link the main Brahmaputra with the Ganga.

The Peninsular Rivers Development Component is divided into four major parts: interlinking of Mahanadi-Godavari-Krishna-Cauvery rivers and building storages at potential sites in these basins, interlinking West-flowing rivers north of Mumbai and south of the Tapi, interlinking of Ken-Chambal, and diversion of other West-flowing rivers. 

Bringing States on board

To implement the project successfully, the Government will have to convince States to come on board, as water is a State subject.

Andhra Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Karnataka, Kerala, Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Odisha, Puducherry, Rajasthan, Tamil Nadu and Uttar Pradesh are the major States to benefit from the project. Several States have supported the plan, while some others have raised concerns. Chief Ministers of both Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu have been urging the Centre to take up the 14 links under the peninsular component. Kerala, however, is worried about the proposed Pamba-Achankovil-Vaippar link.

The first steps

One of the initial tasks before the Government is to address the Supreme Court verdict of February 2014 on the interlinking of rivers. The court had directed the Government to create an appropriate body to plan, construct, and implement the massive project, starting with the Ken-Betwa link.

The two phases of the Ken-Betwa link project, involving Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh, are estimated to cost ₹11,676 crore. A detailed project report for both the phases has been submitted to the two State Governments. According to this report, a total of 11,723 ha of land could be submerged if this project is executed. This includes more than 5,000 ha of forest land belonging to the Panna Tiger Reserve. It will also affect 10,163 people belonging to 2,529 families in 22 villages.

“Together, both the phases of the Ken-Betwa Link project envisage 7.35 lakh ha of irrigation, 78 MW of hydropower and would provide drinking water to 15.07 lakh people,” said S Masood Husain, Director-General, NWDA. Other priority links are Parbati-Kalisindh-Chambal, Damanganga-Pinjal, Par-Tapi-Narmada, and Godavari (Polavaram)-Krishna (Vijayawada).

Of these, the detailed report for the Damanganga-Pinjal link is ready with the Centre. The report has already been submitted to the Governments of Maharashtra and Gujarat. “If implemented, this project can address Mumbai’s water problem to a great extent at least till 2040,” Husain added.

The downside to linking

However, the projects have already invited criticism from various political parties. In fact, those who were evicted for the construction of the Bhakra and the Pong dams, two of the oldest in India, have still not been fully rehabilitated.

“Environmentalists, hydrologists and economists around the world have expressed deep concerns at the irreversible damage that this sort of a mega project can do to the country’s environment and our water resources. Massive civil works will be involved, lakhs of people will be uprooted and vast sums of money will be required,” Congress leader and MP Karan Singh said.

The CPI (M) has also questioned the move. The party’s MP KN Balagopal said the Central Government’s plan is politically-motivated, giving the example of theParambikkulam-Aliayar project (in Kerala).” Farmers of Palakkad district have to hold protests during the crop season to get water from the project released. The proposed Pamba-Achankovil-Vaippar link will be a disaster for a riparian zone like Kerala, he says.

Failed attempts

The Government defends the project, saying the idea of river-linking is not new in India. In 1972, then Union Irrigation Minister KL Rao mooted the first major proposal to interlink the water basins. The 2,640-km-long Ganga-Cauvery link was the main component in the proposal. But Rao’s estimate of ₹12,500 crore was considered “grossly under-estimated and economically prohibitive.” In 1977, during the Moraji Desai Government, Captain Dinshaw J Dastur, an engineer, proposed the construction of two canals – the first for the Himalayan rivers and the second to cover the central and southern parts. A host of experts opined that his project was infeasible.

However, both the Government and the NWDA are now confident of implementing the project at the national level. The NWDA lists a number of initiatives such as the Periyar Project, the Parambikulam-Aliyar, Kurnool-Cudappah Canal, the Telugu Ganga Project, and the Ravi-Beas-Sutlej-Indira Gandhi Nahar Project as examples of successful execution of river linking.

“If we can build storage reservoirs on these (surplus) rivers and connect them to other parts of the country, regional imbalances could be reduced significantly and lot of benefits by way of additional irrigation, domestic and industrial water supply, hydropower generation, and navigational facilities would accrue,” it adds.